CRE Lending Trends, Q3 2026: What the Data Says If Your Loan Matures Soon

By Justin Ashcraft, President, Northern Ridge Capital. More than $600M in commercial real estate deal experience. California DRE #02093377. Last updated September 2026.

CRE lending trends in Q3 2026 show lenders writing more loans, banks easing a little, and distress on existing loans staying high. Originations rose 16% year over year in the second quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Meanwhile the CMBS special servicing rate hit its highest level since February 2013. Which of those applies to you depends on your building, your lender and your clock.

Is commercial real estate lending up or down in 2026?

Up. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported on 6 August 2026 that commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 16% higher in the second quarter of 2026 than a year earlier, and 12% higher than the first quarter.

By property type, retail loan volume rose 61% year over year, office 47%, hotel 19%, multifamily 8% and industrial 6%. Health care fell 19%. By source, CMBS volume was up 68% and depositories (banks) up 61%, while the GSEs fell 17% and life insurance companies fell 27%. So the growth came from the securitized market and the banks. The two most conservative long-term sources pulled back.

Are banks lending on commercial real estate again?

Somewhat, and it depends on the bank. The Federal Reserve Board's July 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, released 3 August 2026, found that "moderate and modest net shares of banks reported having eased standards for loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential (NFNR) properties and multifamily properties, respectively, while standards for construction and land development (CLD) loans remained basically unchanged on net."

On demand, the same survey said it "remained basically unchanged for NFNR and multifamily loans," but split by size: "large banks reported stronger demand and other banks reported weaker demand for such loans." In practice that means the regional or community bank holding your loan may be less eager than the headline suggests, even while larger banks are looking for deals.

How much commercial real estate debt matures in 2026 and 2027?

The MBA's 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes, released 9 February 2026, found that 17% ($875 billion) of the $5.0 trillion in outstanding commercial mortgages is scheduled to mature in 2026. That's down 9% from the $957 billion scheduled for 2025. MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni put 2027 at $652 billion.

The share varies a lot by lender. By MBA's count, 21% of bank-serviced balances ($396 billion) mature in 2026, along with 25% of CMBS, CLO and other ABS balances ($200 billion) and 29% of loans held by credit companies and other lenders ($163 billion). Only 4% of multifamily and health care balances held or guaranteed by the government agencies come due. By property type, 30% of hotel loans, 23% of industrial, 17% of office and 13% of multifamily mature this year.

MBA's Reggie Booker, associate vice president of commercial research, said the 9% decline "suggests that the market is beginning to move past the peak of the maturity wave in recent years." That still leaves $875 billion due this year.

Are commercial loan delinquencies getting better or worse?

It depends which data set you read. The three below measure different loan pools, so they don't reconcile.

• MBA, all capital sources, Q2 2026. MBA's Loan Performance Survey, reported by Connect CRE on 30 July 2026, found delinquency rates fell in the second quarter. CMBS delinquencies dropped 39 basis points to 4.82%. Life company loans fell 28 basis points to 1.19%. Booker called it "continued stability in the commercial mortgage market."
• Trepp, CMBS only, August 2026. As reported by Multifamily Dive on 16 September 2026, Trepp's CRE delinquency rate slipped 1 basis point to 7.85%. The special servicing rate rose 33 basis points to 11.42%, its highest level since February 2013. Multifamily CMBS delinquency held at 7.69%, up from 6.86% a year earlier.
• Banks, multifamily, Q2 2026. The same Multifamily Dive report cited a CRED iQ analysis of FDIC data showing bank-held multifamily delinquency eased to 1.41% from 1.47% in the first quarter. CRED iQ also noted that 90-plus day delinquencies and net charge-offs rose, which it called "consistent with a workout-driven cycle rather than a resolving one."

More loans are landing with special servicers while the late-payment rate holds flat. For an owner with a CMBS loan, that usually points to a negotiation with a servicer, ready or not.

CRE lending trends at a glance

We don't publish rates in this round-up. For pricing, see our commercial real estate rate report.

Which property types are under the most stress?

Office still carries the most, but multifamily is the one moving. In a Commercial Observer column dated 10 August 2026, CRED iQ's Liam Mulcahy reported that across the 50 largest CMBS markets, $45.8 billion of $393.5 billion in balance is distressed, a rate of 11.6%. By property type, office sits at 16.7%, mixed-use 14.4%, multifamily 13%, lodging 10.6%, retail 8.8% and industrial just 1%. Multifamily distress "has more than doubled since February, from 6 percent to 13 percent," while office eased from 21.2%.

Retail is the odd one. It posted the biggest jump in new loan volume in the MBA data, which tells you lenders will still write a good retail deal. We covered what they look for in grocery-anchored shopping center loans.

What do CRE lending trends look like in Texas, California, Florida, Georgia and Indiana?

These are the five states we work in. The national figures above cover all of them; the state-level data that's public this quarter is thinner and comes mostly from CMBS, so treat it as partial.

• Texas. CRED iQ ranked Austin among the most distressed large CMBS markets at 28.7%. It also named a Houston apartment loan as the largest single driver of new multifamily distress in July, with a Dallas apartment loan also on the list. Trepp's July data, per Multifamily Dive on 12 August 2026, tied that month's jump in multifamily delinquency to a wave of loans in Ohio, Texas and New York going 30 days late. More on our Texas bridge loans page.
• California. A split market. San Francisco was at 21.5% distress in CRED iQ's ranking, while San Diego was among the most stable large markets at 0.4%. Los Angeles stayed roughly flat since February. See California bridge loans.
• Florida. Orlando sat around 3%, alongside Phoenix, Boston and Las Vegas near the bottom of CRED iQ's ranking. A Santa Rosa Beach apartment loan was among July's largest new multifamily delinquencies. See Florida bridge loans.
• Georgia. An Atlanta multifamily loan went newly delinquent in July, per CRED iQ. The column didn't publish an Atlanta distress rate. See Georgia multifamily loans.
• Indiana. None of the sources above broke out an Indiana market this quarter, so we're not putting a number on it. See Indiana multifamily loans.

What should an owner with a maturing loan do with this?

More lenders are active, and servicers are working out more loans. Both favor the owner who shows up early with a clean file.

1. Start 12 months out. Inside 90 days, every lender can see the clock. The full sequence is in what to do 12 months before a CMBS maturity.
2. Don't assume your current lender is the market. The Fed survey shows large and smaller banks moving in different directions. If yours has already signaled it won't roll the loan, read what to do when your bank won't renew.
3. Size the gap before a lender does. If today's income won't cover a new loan at today's rates, you'll need to know that first. We walk through the fixes in DSCR too low to refinance.
4. Know when bridge fits. If the fix is a year or two away and the maturity isn't, a commercial bridge loan buys the time. Closings in 15–30 days are realistic when the file is ready.

More lenders are writing loans this year, and each one reads the same file differently. One lender gives you one answer; a broker runs the whole market on your clock.

CRE lending trends FAQ

Are commercial real estate loans easier to get in 2026?

Modestly. The Federal Reserve's July 2026 survey found banks easing standards on nonfarm nonresidential and multifamily loans in the second quarter, and MBA data showed originations up 16% year over year. Construction and land loan standards were basically unchanged.

Is the CRE maturity wall over?

No. MBA's survey shows $875 billion maturing in 2026, down 9% from 2025, with $652 billion scheduled for 2027. The peak may have passed, but the volume is still large, and it's concentrated in bank, CMBS and credit company loans.

Why do MBA and Trepp report different CMBS delinquency rates?

They survey different loan pools and publish on different schedules. MBA's quarterly figure was 4.82% for Q2 2026; Trepp's monthly figure was 7.85% for August 2026. Compare each source with its own history, not with the other.

What does a rising special servicing rate mean for borrowers?

More loans are being handed to special servicers, who handle workouts, modifications and foreclosures. Trepp's rate reached 11.42% in August 2026, the highest since February 2013. If you have a CMBS loan with a maturity or covenant issue coming, expect a negotiation.

Which property type is easiest to finance right now?

By credit performance, industrial. CRED iQ put industrial distress at 1% across the 50 largest CMBS markets. By new volume, retail loan originations grew fastest in Q2 2026 at 61% year over year, per MBA.

How often is this round-up updated?

Quarterly. Each edition uses the latest public data from non-lender sources available when it's written, and every figure is dated so you can see how current it is.

Is Northern Ridge Capital a lender?

No. We're a commercial real estate mortgage broker, not a lender. We're paid when your deal closes with whichever lender in our 700+ network gives you the best structure, so our incentive and yours point the same way. Commercial real estate only, no residential.

About Northern Ridge Capital

Northern Ridge Capital is a commercial real estate debt brokerage placing $5 million to $30 million loans across multifamily, retail and industrial in California, Texas, Florida, Georgia and Indiana. Justin Ashcraft, the president, has more than $600M in commercial real estate deal experience and holds California DRE license #02093377. We run your file across a network of 700+ lenders and bring back the structures that fit. If you're refinancing rather than bridging, start at commercial property refinance.

This article is general information, not a loan commitment, and not legal, tax or investment advice. Figures are attributed to their sources and dated; they describe the market, not any specific loan. Terms depend on the property, the sponsor and market conditions at the time of application. Northern Ridge Capital is a commercial real estate mortgage broker, not a lender. See our full disclaimer.

Thinking about pulling cash out? Read can you do a cash-out refinance on a commercial property.