Commercial Real Estate Rate Report: Q3 2026
By Justin Ashcraft, Principal, Northern Ridge Capital. Published August 2026. Data as of June 2026; indices as of August 22, 2026.
This commercial real estate rate report shows what middle-market CRE debt actually priced at, not what rate sheets advertise. The bands below are drawn from a dataset of recent closing terms across the market: 3,711 first-mortgage records, of which we use the 1,041 at $5M and above on multifamily, retail, industrial, office, and mixed-use. These are market observations from recent closings, compiled by a broker who prices against them daily. They are not a survey, not published rate sheets, and not deals Northern Ridge Capital arranged.
How this commercial real estate rate report is built
Every band is a percentile range from real closed terms: the p25 to p75 spread, the middle half of what borrowers actually signed. We quote the sample size on every row, because a band without its n is marketing, not data. Rates are note rates on first mortgages $5M and up. The dataset runs through June 2026 and the report refreshes quarterly. Index levels are pulled live from public sources on the date shown.
Q3 2026 rate bands: what $5M+ commercial deals actually priced at
| Product | Middle-half band | Median | Typical LTV | Typical term | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial bridge | 6.9%–9.1% | 7.9% | ~70% | 1–3 years, interest-only common | n=93 |
| Permanent (bank / agency / life co) | 5.9%–6.5% | 6.2% | ~65% | 5 or 10 years most common | n=748 |
| Construction | 6.6%–9.8% | 8.5% | ~70% of cost | 2–3 years to completion | n=122 |
| SBA 7(a) (owner-occupied) | WSJ Prime + 1%–3%, federally capped at Prime + 3% | 7.75%–9.75% at today's 6.75% Prime | up to ~90% | up to 25 years on real estate | rule-based |
Bands are p25–p75 of recent $5M+ market closings through June 2026, on multifamily, retail, industrial, office, and mixed-use first mortgages. Market observations, not deals arranged by Northern Ridge Capital, and not a quote or offer of terms; actual pricing is set by third-party lenders subject to underwriting. See disclosures.
What is driving CRE pricing right now
Start with the indexes. As of August 22, 2026: SOFR sits near 3.6% to 3.7%, the Treasury curve runs 4.0% to 4.7%, and Prime is 6.75%. Put the bands against those and the structure of the market is visible in two numbers. Permanent money at a 6.2% median is pricing roughly 175 to 220 basis points over the belly of the Treasury curve, which is a normal, functioning spread. Bridge money at a 7.9% median is running roughly 420 basis points over SOFR at the median, and its wide band (6.9% to 9.1%) is the honest part: bridge pricing is not one market, it is a negotiation about asset quality, leverage, and exit, which is why the gap between a first quote and a competed quote is largest exactly here.
The volume story is the maturity calendar. Per the Mortgage Bankers Association, $875 billion of commercial mortgages mature in 2026, 17% of the $5.0 trillion outstanding, down 9% from 2025's $957 billion. The wall is past its peak but the composition got harder: 23% of industrial loans and 30% of hotel loans outstanding come due this year, and Trepp counts $76.6 billion of CMBS facing hard maturities with no extension option left. A loan written at 2021 pricing that matures into this table reprices up roughly 150 to 300 basis points at the median, and that, not any single Fed meeting, is what most 2026 refinance conversations are actually about.
Reading the commercial real estate rate report as a borrower
Three practical reads from this quarter's data. First, the bridge-to-perm gap is about 170 basis points at the median, which is the price of time: a borrower who cannot qualify for permanent debt today pays roughly that premium to hold the asset until they can. On a $10M loan that is about $170K a year, which sounds expensive until you price the alternative, selling into a reset market or writing a check at maturity. Second, the wide bridge band rewards shopping. The spread between p25 and p75 bridge pricing is over 220 basis points; on the same $10M loan, landing in the bottom quartile instead of the top is worth more than $220K a year, and which quartile you land in is substantially a function of how many lenders actually price the file. That is the argument for a broker running the market rather than one desk answering: see how we run a bridge process. Third, SBA 7(a) is the quiet bargain for owner-operators: rule-capped at Prime + 3%, it prices inside most bridge paper with far higher leverage, if you can live with its 45-to-90-day timeline; details on the SBA page. Auction buyers on a contractual clock have their own math, covered under commercial auction financing.
Reading around the numbers
Rate bands tell you what money costs. These tell you what to do about a loan that is coming due.
- Maturing CMBS loan? Start 12 months out, not 90 days out — why the special-servicer timeline punishes a late start.
- 6 commercial real estate challenges squeezing owners in 2026 — and why none of the six is your interest rate.
- Commercial real estate refinancing outlook — what lenders were actually funding as the maturity wall built.
- How to structure a refinance with downside NOI risk — when the rent roll is the problem rather than the rate.
Rate report FAQ
Where do these numbers come from?
From a dataset of recent CRE first-mortgage closing terms across the market, 3,711 records through June 2026, filtered to the 1,041 at $5M and above on core commercial property types. They are market observations, not Northern Ridge Capital's own closings, and we say so because a rate report you can trust starts with a methodology you can check.
Why show a band instead of one rate?
Because one rate is fiction. The middle half of real bridge closings spans more than two full points. Where your deal lands depends on asset, leverage, exit, and how many lenders compete for it.
How often is this updated?
Quarterly, with index levels refreshed to the publication date. The next update lands in Q4 2026.
Can I use these numbers?
Yes, with attribution to Northern Ridge Capital's Commercial Real Estate Rate Report and the as-of date. Journalists and researchers can reach us at Justin@northernridgecapital.com for the underlying methodology.
About this report
Justin Ashcraft is the Principal of Northern Ridge Capital, a commercial real estate debt brokerage placing $5M–$30M through a network of 700+ lenders, with $600M+ in deal experience across underwriting and brokerage. A broker, not a lender. Licensed in California, DRE #02093377. More on the about page.
Want your deal priced against these bands, not above them?
Book a 15-minute call → or submit your dealNorthern Ridge Capital is a licensed commercial mortgage broker (CA DRE #02093377), not a lender, and arranges financing on commercial real estate only. All figures are indicative market observations as of the dates shown, attributed to their sources, and are not an indication or offer of terms. For informational purposes only; not financial, legal, or tax advice. Full disclosures.